Friday, March 28, 2008

Deal or No Deal

You know what? I'm actually going to make a post about Deal or No Deal. I strongly dislike this show. This is not the fault of any of the creators of the program, but the contestants that somehow get on the show. None of them know anything about statistical probability. In fact, this is probably for a good reason. If only mathematicians were on the show, who would be making the money? Not the network. This leads me to believe the true problem is not the contestants, but the people in charge of picking the contestants. Ignoring these people, Deal or No Deal is one of the many practical applications for statistical probability. As Pseudar says, "It is one of the many practical applications for statistical probability." He also goes on to say he is referring to the algorithms used by the banker to decide the "deal". I have figured out these algorithms and reveal to you the great secret:
First, calculate the theoretical value of the suitcases left on the board. That is, the expected amount of money the person will win.
Then, pick a much, much lower number. This is the deal. If you are desperate, pick an only slightly lower number.
Lastly, wait for the contestant to win between $.01 and $5.00.
If you are the banker and are dealing with mathematicians or probability theorists, my best advice is to take the money, jump through the glass on a motorcycle, do a few donuts, team up with Jason Bourne, and flee the country.

4 comments:

Allan said...

OMG
i have a vague recollection of this and... MRS SCHRICK

Gman said...

whos ms shrick?

Pseudar said...

Who's Allan?

Gman said...

Why do you get so preoccupied with whoever leaves a comment on our blog?